Martin leads a modelling and data-science group focused on designing, evaluating and optimising strategies to control, eliminate and eradicate infectious diseases of people and animals. We combine mathematical and statistical modelling, evidence synthesis and open data to inform policy and practice. We collaborate with an array of international partners from Imperial College London, the University of Oxford, the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory, and The Carter Center, and are embedded in major initiatives—the NTD Modelling Consortium, the WOAH Collaborating Centre and the IDDO NTD IPD Platform—supported by funders including the Gates Foundation, UKRI, EDCTP and Wellcome.

Elimination & eradication modelling

We develop quantitative frameworks to evaluate transmission thresholds, stopping decisions and timelines to elimination/eradication under different intervention strategies. Current priorities include end-game strategies for human neglected tropical diseases such as onchocerciasis (river blindness), schistosomiasis (bilharzia), lymphatic filariasis (elephantiasis) and dracunculiasis (Guinea worm), animal diseases such as Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and zoonoses such as brucellosis. 

Recent illustrative publications

Stapley JN, Hamley JID, Basáñez MG, Walker M. Modelling transmission thresholds and hypoendemic stability for onchocerciasis elimination. PLoS Computational Biology 2025; 21: e1013026. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013026 

Stapley JN, Hamley JID, Walker M, Dixon MA, Colebunders R, Básañez MG. Modelling onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy and the impact of ivermectin treatment on its prevalence and incidence. Nature Communications 2024; 15: 6275. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-50582-9

Savagar B, Jones BA, Arnold M, Walker M, Fournié G. Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste de des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication. Epidemics 2023; 45: 100725. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100725

Kura K, Milton P, Hamley JID, Walker M, Bakajika DK, Kanza EM, Opoku NO, Howard H, Nigo MM, Asare S, Olipoh G, Attah SK, Mambandu GL, Kennedy KK, Kataliko K, Mumbere M, Halleux CM, Hopkins A, Kuesel AC, Kinrade S, Basáñez MG. Can Mass Drug Administration of Moxidectin Accelerate Onchocerciasis Elimination in Africa? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2023; 378: 20220277. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0277

Transmission ecology, One Health & zoonoses

We develop models and statistical tools to quantify pathogen flow between people, livestock, wildlife and the environment, identify animal reservoirs and design combined intervention packages. Current priorities include zoonotic schistosomiasis (livestock reservoirs, diagnostics and control options), toxomplasmposis, bovine brucellosis (integrated human–animal vaccination and testing strategies), Campylobacter in poultry (farm-to-fork risk reduction) and zoonotic hookworm (Ancylostoma ceylanicum). We integrate field, serological and spatial data to map risk, compare intervention scenarios and support national control programmes.

Recent illustrative publications

Diaz AV, Walker M, Webster JP. Reaching the World Health Organization elimination targets for schistosomiasis: the importance of a One Health perspective. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2023; 378: 20220274. doi: 0.1098/rstb.2022.0274

Walker M, Lambert S, Neves MI, Worsley AD, Traub R, Colella V. Modelling the effectiveness of One Health interventions against the zoonotic hookworm Ancylostoma ceylanicum. Frontiers in Medicine 2023; 10: 1092030. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1092030

Holt HR, Walker M, Beavais W, Kaur P, Bedi JS, Mangtani P, Sharma NS, Gill JPS, Godfroid J, McGiven JA, Guitian J. Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 2023; 20: 20220756. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2022.0756

Neves MI, Gower CM, Webster JP, Walker M. Revisiting density-dependent fecundity in schistosomes using sibship reconstruction. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2021; 15: e0009396. doi: 0.1371/journal.pntd.0009396  

Therapeutics, trial design & open data platforms

We develop decision-support tools for drug development and programme optimisation, including clinical-trial simulators to select endpoints, doses and sample sizes for antifilarials; methods to quantify PK/PD variability and interpret efficacy signals; and stewardship of open data platforms in collaboration with the Infectious Diseases Data Observatory to standardise, share and reuse clinical data for better treatment guidance.

Recent illustrative publications

Freitas LT, Khan MA, Uddin A, Halder JB, Singh-Phulgenda S, Raja JD, Balakrishnan V, Harriss E, Rahi M, Brack M, Guérin PJ, Básañez MG, Kumar A, Walker M, Srividya A. The lymphatic filariasis treatment study landscape: a systematic review of study characteristics and the case for an individual participant data platform. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2024; 18: e0011882. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011882

Whittaker C, Chesnais CB, Pion SDS, Kamgno J, Walker M, Basáñez MG, Boussinesq M. Factors associated with variation in single-dose albendazole pharmacokinetics: A systematic review and modelling analysis. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2022; 16: e0010497. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010497

Walker M, Hamley JID, Milton P, Monnot F, Kinrade S, Specht S, Pedrique B, Basáñez MG. Supporting drug development for neglected tropical diseases using mathematical modelling. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2021; 73: e1391-e1396. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciab350

Walker M, Hamley JID, Milton P, Monnet F, Pedrique B, Basáñez M-G. Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators. Nature Communications. 2020; 11: 1-11. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16442-y

For a complete list of my publications see my Google Scholar page

Selected recent publications

Stapley JN, Hamley JID, Basáñez MG, Walker M. Modelling transmission thresholds and hypoendemic stability for onchocerciasis elimination. PLoS Computational Biology 2025; 21: e1013026. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013026

Milne GC, Oettle RC, Whittaker C, Kabatereine NB, Basáñez MG, Webster JP, Walker M, Wilson S. Revisiting immunity vs. exposure in schistosomiasis: A mathematical modeling study of delayed concomitant immunity. PNAS Nexus 2024; 3: pgae471. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae471

Stapley JN, Hamley JID, Walker M, Dixon MA, Colebunders R, Básañez MG. Modelling onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy and the impact of ivermectin treatment on its prevalence and incidence. Nature Communications 2024; 15: 6275. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-50582-9

Vasconcelos A, King JD, Nunes-Alves C, Anderson R, Argaw D, Basáñez MG, Bilal S, Blok DJ, Blumberg S, Borlase A, Brady OJ, Browning R, Chitnis N, Coffeng LE, Crowley EH, Cucunubá ZM, Cummings DAT, Davis CN, Davis EL, Dixon M, Dobson A, Dyson L, French M, Fronterre C, Giorgi E, Huang CI, Jain S, James A, Kim SH, Kura K, Lucianez A, Marks M, Mbabazi PS, Medley GF, Michael E, Montresor A, Mutono N, Mwangi TS, Rock KS, Saboyá-Díaz MI, Sasanami M, Schwehm M, Spencer SEF, Srivathsan A, Stawski RS, Stolk WA, Sutherland SA, Tchuenté LT, de Vlas SJ, Walker M, Brooker SJ, Hollingsworth TD, Solomon AW, Fall IS. Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions? Clinical Infectious Diseases 2024; 78: S83-S92. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciae082.

Freitas LT, Khan MA, Uddin A, Halder JB, Singh-Phulgenda S, Raja JD, Balakrishnan V, Harriss E, Rahi M, Brack M, Guérin PJ, Básañez MG, Kumar A, Walker M, Srividya A. The lymphatic filariasis treatment study landscape: a systematic review of study characteristics and the case for an individual participant data platform. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2024; 18: e0011882. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011882

Savagar B, Jones BA, Arnold M, Walker M, Fournié G. Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste de des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication. Epidemics 2023; 45: 100725. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100725

Kura K, Milton P, Hamley JID, Walker M, Bakajika DK, Kanza EM, Opoku NO, Howard H, Nigo MM, Asare S, Olipoh G, Attah SK, Mambandu GL, Kennedy KK, Kataliko K, Mumbere M, Halleux CM, Hopkins A, Kuesel AC, Kinrade S, Basáñez MG. Can Mass Drug Administration of Moxidectin Accelerate Onchocerciasis Elimination in Africa? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2023; 378: 20220277. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0277

Diaz AV, Walker M, Webster JP. Reaching the World Health Organization elimination targets for schistosomiasis: the importance of a One Health perspective. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2023; 378: 20220274. doi: 0.1098/rstb.2022.0274

Calvo-Urbano B, Léger E, Gabain I, De Dood CJ, Diouf ND, Borlase A, Rudge JW, Corstjens PLAM, Sène M, Van Dam GJ, Walker M, Webster JP. Sensitivity and specificity of human point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) test in African livestock for rapid diagnosis of schistosomiasis: a Bayesian latent class analysis. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2023; 17: e0010739. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010739

Kao RR, Smith GC, Walker M. Infectious disease modelling to inform policy. Revue Scientifique et Technique (International Office of Epizootics) 2023; 42: 173-179. doi: 10.20506/rst.42.3360

Walker M, Lambert S, Neves MI, Worsley AD, Traub R, Colella V. Modelling the effectiveness of One Health interventions against the zoonotic hookworm Ancylostoma ceylanicum. Frontiers in Medicine 2023; 10: 1092030. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1092030

Holt HR, Walker M, Beavais W, Kaur P, Bedi JS, Mangtani P, Sharma NS, Gill JPS, Godfroid J, McGiven JA, Guitian J. Modelling the control of bovine brucellosis in India. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 2023; 20: 20220756. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2022.0756

Milne G, Webster JP, Walker M. Is the incidence of congenital toxoplasmosis declining? Trends in Parasitology. 2022. doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2022.10.003 

Dixon MA, Winskill P, Harrison WE, Whittaker C, Schmidt V, Sánchez ACF, Cucunuba ZM, Edia-Asuke AU, Walker M, Basáñez MG. Global variation in force-of-infection trends for human Taenia solium taeniasis/cysticercosis. Elife. 2022; 11: 76988. doi: 10.7554/eLife.76988

Diaz AV, Lambert S, Neves MI, Borlase A, Léger E, Diouf ND, Sène M, Webster JP, Walker M. Modelling livestock test-and-treat: a novel One Health strategy to control schistosomiasis and mitigate drug resistance. Frontiers in Tropical Diseases. 2022; 3:893066. doi: 10.3389/fitd.2022.893066

Walker M, Freitas LT, Halder JB, Brack M, Keiser J, King CH, Levecke B, Lim YAL, Pieri O, Sow D, Stothard JR, Webster JP, Zhou XN, Terry RF, Guérin PJ, Basáñez MG. Improving anthelmintic treatment for schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases through sharing and reuse of individual participant data. Wellcome Open Research. 2022; 7:5. doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17468.1 

Guest C, Dewhirst SY, Lindsay SW, Allen DJ, Aziz S, Baerenbold O, Bradley J, Chabildas U, Chen-Hussey V, Clifford S, Cottis L, Dennehy J, Foley E, Gezan SA, Gibson T, Greaves CK, Kleinschmidt I, Lambert S, Last A, Morant S, Parker JEA, Pickett J, Quilty BJ, Rooney A, Shah M, Somerville M, Squires C, Walker M, Logan JG, COVID Dogs Research Team. Using trained dogs and organic semi-conducting sensors to identify asymptomatic and mild SARS-CoV-2 infections: an observational study. Journal of Travel Medicine. 2022; 29:taac043. doi: 10.1093/jtm/taac043

Galipó E, Dixon MA, Fronterrè C, Cucunubá ZM, Basáñez MG, Stevens K, Sánchez ACF, Walker M. Spatial distribution and risk factors of human cysticercosis in Colombia. Parasites & Vectors. 2021; 14:590. doi: 10.1186/s13071-021-05092-8

Díaz A, Walker M, Webster JP. Surveillance and control of SARS-CoV-2 in mustelids: an evolutionary perspective. Evolutionary Applications. 2021; 00:1-11. doi: 10.1111/eva.13310

Walker M, Cools P, Albonico M, Ame SM, Ayana M, Dana D, Keiser J, Matoso LF, Montresor A, Mekonnen Z, Corrêa-Oliveira R, Pinto SA, Sayasone S, Vercruysse J, Vlaminck J, Levecke B. Individual responses to a single oral dose of albendazole indicate reduced efficacy against soil-transmitted helminths in an area with high drug pressure. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2021. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009888

Walker M, Hamley JID, Milton P, Monnot F, Kinrade S, Specht S, Pedrique B, Basáñez MG. Supporting drug development for neglected tropical diseases using mathematical modelling. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2021; 73: e1391-e1396. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciab350

Neves MI, Gower CM, Webster JP, Walker M. Revisiting density-dependent fecundity in schistosomes using sibship reconstruction. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2021; 15: e0009396. doi: 0.1371/journal.pntd.0009396 

Stolk WA, Blok DJ, Hamley JID, Cantey PT, de Vlas SJ, Walker M, Basáñez M-G. Scaling-down mass ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis elimination: modelling the impact of the geographical unit for decision making. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2021; 72: S165-S171. doi:  10.1093/cid/ciab238 

Coffeng LE, Levecke B, Hattemdorf J, Walker M, Denwood MJ. Survey design to monitor drug efficacy for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiasis and schistosomiasis. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2021; 72: S195-S202. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciab196

Milne G, Webster JP, Walker M. Toxoplasma gondii: an underestimated threat? Trends in Parasitology. 2020; 36(12): 959-969. doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2020.08.005

Toor J, Adams ER, Aliee M, Amoah B, Anderson RM, Ayabina D, Bailey R, Basáñez M-G, Blok DJ, Blumberg S, Borlase A, Caja Rivera R, Castano MS, Chitnis N, Coffeng LE, Crump RE, Das A, Davis CN, Davis EL, Deiner MS, Diggle PJ, Fronterre C, Giardina F, Giorgi E, Graham M, Hamley JID, Huang CI, Kura K, Lietman TM, Lucas TCD, Malizia V, Medley GF, Meeyai A, Michael E, Porco TC, Prada JM, Rock KS, Le Rutte EA, Smith ME, Spencer SEF, Stolk WA, Touloupou P, Vasconcelos A, Vegvari C, de Vlas SJ, Walker M, Hollingsworth TD. Predicted impact of COVID-19 on neglected tropical disease programs and the opportunity for innovation. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2020; 72(8): 1463-1466. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa933

Milne G, Webster JP, Walker M. Towards improving interventions against toxoplasmosis by identifying routes of transmission using sporozoite-specific serological tools. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2020; 71(10): e686-e693. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa428

Dolo H, Coulibaly YI, Sow M, Dembélé M, Doumbia SS, Coulibaly SY, Sangare MB, Dicko I, Diallo AA, Soumaoro L, Coulibaly ME, Diarra D, Colebunders R, Nutman TB, Walker M, Basáñez M-G. Serological Evaluation of Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination in the Bakoye and Falémé foci, Mali. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2020. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa318.

Walker M, Hamley JID, Milton P, Monnet F, Pedrique B, Basáñez M-G. Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators. Nature Communications. 2020; 11(1): 1-11. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16442-y.

Hamley JI, Walker M, Coffeng LE, Milton P, de Vlas SJ, Stolk WA, Basáñez M-G. Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring. Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2020; 221(S5): S510-S518. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiz674.

Behrend MR, Basáñez M-G, Hamley JI, Porco TC, Stolk WA, Walker M, de Vlas SJ. Modelling for policy: The five principles of the Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2020; 14(4): e0008033. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008033.

Deol AK, Fleming FM, Calvo-Urbano B, Walker M, Bucumi V, Gnandou I, Tukahebwa EM, Jemu S, Mwingira UJ, Alkohlani A, Traore M, Ruberanziza E, Toure S, Basáñez MG, French MD, Webster JP Schistosomiasis—Assessing Progress toward the 2020 and 2025 Global Goals. New England Journal of Medicine. 2019; 381(26): 2519-28. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa1812165.

Martin teaches epidemiology, statistics and mathematical modelling across the range of undergraduate and postgraduate courses offered by the RVC. He leads the Introduction to One Health and Parasitology of Human and Veterinary Tropical Diseases modules for undergraduate Bioscience students and coordinates the Statistical Advisory Service for Veterinary Medicine research projects. Martin supervises all levels of undergraduate and postgraduate research projects.

• FluTrailMap (Poultry) consortium

  

  The project brings together leading researchers at top UK scientific organisations to better understand and mitigate the threats of bird flu viruses to the poultry sector.

    

   

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